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ManBetX手机版青联午餐会:Socioeconomic status, information acquisition and macroeconomic expectation
发布时间:2021年12月27日 15:45    编辑:吕宁    点击:[]

一、讲座主题:Socioeconomic status, information acquisition and macroeconomic expectation


三、主要内容:Forecasting future macroeconomic variables plays an important role in household's consumption and investment decisions. For example, in the life-cycle permanent income hypothese model and in the new Keynesian model, we have learned that a optimistic expectation about future income will increase current consumption and the same result happens if people expect the future inflation rate increases. However, what determines individual's forecasting precision? What are the roles of income inequality and education play in dtermining the forecasting behavior? Survey data from Michigan Survey of consumers (MSC) show that income and education affects forecasting errors regarding unemployment, interest rate and inflation directly and indirectly through attention allocation. Especially, the direct effect can be understood as the possibility to access more precise information through delegation, i.e. rich people can afford monetary cost to purchase information from professionals. In this paper we build a model of information delegation and information processing to explain these direct and indirect effects. We find that households with more income are more likely to purchase information from professionals and also to pay attention to macroeconomic variables.



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